A breakdown of the two key announcements of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy’s press conference, which has just wrapped up.
1. The modelling
Academic modelling into the spread of the virus, undertaken by the Peter Doherty Institute, will be released later today, but Dr Murphy talked it through in the press conference.
This modelling is theoretical and based on overseas data. Dr Murphy stressed it should not be considered predictive of Australia’s results. He said the Australian case base is not yet sufficient enough to be incorporated into the modelling data. (Which is a good thing). These are the three scenarios contemplated by the modelling:
- An unmitigated scenario, where we do nothing: “this is a horrendous scenario”, Dr Murphy said. In this scenario, daily demand for ICU beds would be 35,000-plus, which is “impossible to meet”.
- A scenario where we practise both quarantine and self-isolation:” You would still materially exceed with ICU bed demand,” Dr Murphy said. “You get a lower infection rate, lower hospitalisation rate, but most people who need the ICU won’t get it.”
- A scenario where we practise quarantine, self-isolation, and social distancing measures. “You very clearly drop the peak,” Dr Murphy says. “We know we could meet the ICU bed capacity.” The measures we’ve currently introduced in Australia are closest to this scenario, and are likely even more effective, he says.
2. Commercial tenancies mandatory code
The Prime Minister outlined a mandatory code that will apply to commercial tenancies:
- Where the tenant or landlord is eligible for the Jobkeeper program
- Where must have a turnover of 50 million or less
- Landlords must not terminate the lease or draw into a tenant’s security
- Likewise tenants must not terminate the lease
- It will be implemented through a combination of waivers of rent and deferrals of rent
- Deferrals must be covered over the balance of the lease term and in no less period than 12 months
- It will be overseen by a binding mediation process run by states and territories